Week 11: Dedicated to the memory of Jim Croce

Last week: 4-1
Season: 9-3-2

You might as well tie the following picks into a five-team parlay, because as Glengarry Glen Ross' Shelly Levene said, "I am going to close them all, and that's all I have to say to you" (flip-off gesture). I've got the good leads this week; I'm carrying the Glengarry leads. To you they're gold, but you shouldn't get them, because to give them to you would be to throw them away. They're for closers only.

So you're bitchin' about what? Bitchin' about some parlay you lost, some back-door cover that burned you, some total you missed …? You call yourself a gambler, you son-of-a-bitch? You can't pull the trigger on the leads you're given, you can't close shit, you are shit, so hit the bricks, pal, because you're going out.

I can go out this weekend, with the leads you're given, and close three two-team parlays in one afternoon--can you?! The sportsbooks are sitting out there waiting to give you their money. Are you gonna take it? Are you man enough to take it? Soon, I'll be financing a new Lexus RX Pebble Beach edition complements of this years' winnings, because that's who I am … and you're nothing.

I'd wish you luck but you wouldn't know what to do with it anyway. That said, here are the Glengarry leads:







12:00
Line: Atlanta -5.5
Percent of Vegas action on Atlanta: 90%

At this rate, Matt Ryan is going to be the reason that in twenty years kids will be saying things like "who's Joe Montana?" He sounds, and plays like, a Tom Clancy character. I vividly remember sitting in my apartment last year as Boston College took on Virginia Tech when Ryan scored two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the game to beat the Hokies 14-10. I remember because it snapped my teaser and made me realize that this kid was the second coming. I hated him for the teaser thing, but knew he'd be the best QB coming out of the draft. He's proven as much this year.

The DEN/CLE game cost me a perfect 5-0 record last week. Damn Cleveland for giving away a 23-10 lead in the third quarter and allowing that pasty freak, Cutler, to throw three fourth quarter TD's. I want Denver to lose and I want to profit from it. I'm betting this game with my heart, not el cabesa. I want Ryan to prove he's the real gunslinger in the league by toarching that paltry Denver D. Win this one for Jud Nelson and give the 5.5.









12:00
Line: Miami -10.5
Percent of Vegas action on Miami: 72%

Carolina's Jake Delhomme had the worst game of his life last week: 7/27 for 72 yards and 4 picks. You'd be right to think that he was trying to shave points, but even this dreadful performance proved to be too much of the hapless Raiders. Oakland hasn't seen the end zone in nine quarters of football and the Dolphins are prepped to make that thirteen.

What's left to be said that hasn't been already? Russell is out, Walter's hurt, and Tuiasosopo sucks. The toughest question may be will this team ever score another touchdown? Tom Cable is the Caucasian version of Ballsac Teabagger. I can picture Pennington having one of those games where all you see before CBS cuts to commercial breaks are huge smiles, fist-pumps, and those Walter Payton-esque jumping back-collision celebrations. I'm not even sure I'd take the Raiders +21 in this game. Half their players couldn't even make the Humplick Railhumppers.

Oakland to Miami is a long trip. What will be longer is the trip home sitting on those inflatable donuts after being sodomized by the Dolphins. Talk about catching the red-eye!

Bienvenido a Miami, limp-dicks.









3:15
Line: Tennessee -3
Percent of Vegas action on Tennessee: 97%

Jacksonville is the most unreliable team in the NFL. All I can think of when I see Garrard are those ads he does for Crohn's disease. I don't know what Crohn's is, but I think it makes you throw like a limp-wristed poof. Tennessee is 8-1 ATS this year because they're hated by the entire country for being a boring team. Boring they may be, but having the best O- and D-lines in the NFL make for a lot boring wins. The Titans made some costly mistakes last week and still covered. Dropping the ball on the goal line is usually enough to change the tide of momentum against you, but Tennessee rolled with this punch and staved off a rabid crowd and a quarterback with boomerangs for eyebrows.

I've lost more money betting on and against Jacksonville than any other team. They are in fact my nemesis. They've singlehandedly brought two gambling seasons to premature ends, but not this year. Jack Del Rio probably owes me five figures by now, and I intend to collect on that debt this weekend. It's time for Jackie boy to get hustled, and I'm his pusher, baby.

This line seems so shaddy. Vegas is already calling upset. This is where we band together and collectively piss all over the oddsmakers on the Dirty Boulevard. They'll be wrong here, and we'll (I'll) be right. When in doubt, follow this time-tested credo: Always bet against the guy with gastrointestinal problems.







3:15
Line: Pittsburg -4
Percent of Vegas action on Pittsburg: 95%

As we saw last week, Tomlinson is washed up. Oh yeah, I when there. His career, like flight 93, is going down. He's average at best. Better squeeze in some more Campbell's Chunky Soup and Vizio ads while you can. And by the way, can Philip Rivers stop going to Super Cuts? It looks like he walked in and said "give me the Todd Mader." (Spit.) Time for a big-boy haircut, maybe? If you're still going into your barber and using the phrase "high & tight," you might as well shrink-wrap your dong.

Roethlisberger's donkey performance last week cost the team the game and its grip on the division. They need this win. The fans will be twirling their bibs around their heads like the sausage-devouring, blue-collar morons they are. It'll be cold this week in PA, and you know how this Chargers team plays in sub-forty degree weather: like pansies. Give the 4.

----

Go and do likewise gents - the money's out there. You pick it up it’s yours; you don’t, I have no sympathy for you. Get mad, you son-of-a-bitches, get mad!

Bonus College Pick:

Penn State -34.5

****purely for entertainment purposes****

Week 10

Last week: 2-3
Season: 5-3-2

The much-maligned NFL Network will be broadcasting its first game of the season this Thursday as the Broncos hobble into Cleveland. A Thursday night game is a different animal than a Sunday/Monday battle. In college, Thursday night football is where rated teams go to die, but the NFL's different. If you're lucky enough to be watching the game (or rich enough), the vibe is something altogether unique. We've all grown accustomed to nuances of game coverage each network has. Below is a breakdown of the things we love and hate about each of the NFL providers:

CBS
- Horrid pre/post-game show comprised of egomaniac ex-players
- Boring announcers
- Very clean coverage; no replays of fights or skirmishes
- Very generous with bonus coverage
- Often switch coverage from blow-outs to more interesting games
- Well produced and reliable
- Odd camera angles at times (can we ditch the blimp-cam already?)

ESPN
- Bloated pre-game, but watchable; lot of burnouts, imbeciles and posers with microphones (Ditka, Emmitt, Stewart Scott)
- MNF doesn't feel right on ESPN; Mike Patrick was just magic on the Sunday evening ESPN game
- The revolving door of announcers should see Kornheiser leaving when whence he came (I've forgotten more about football then he ever knew)
- Jaworski's surprisingly good in the booth coupled the paraplegic Tirico
- The nature of the network allows them the ability to dredge stats and video clips the others can't

FOX
- The most tollerable pre-game show
- Great production value if you like animatronics robots, laser lightshows and Batman and Robin sound effects
- Biased commentators, i.e. Troy Aikman
- Worst sideline reporters of Earth; Pam Oliver should go back to modeling sweaters in Dillard's catalogs
- Has no shame replaying fights and injuries

NBC
- The worst of all networks, bar none
- A pregame show with of 10+ ex-players, former HBO hosts, radio personalities and George Bush-hating zealots
- Want so badly to be able to cover football without looking like phonies; thanks to them, we've all been able to see Notre Dame die before our eyes
- Dick Ebersol is a lot like Chevy Chase: people under twenty don't know who he is because he spent the past two decades making garbage
- John Madden is to video games what George Foreman is to grills, and no one cares about their past anymore
- The horse trailer gimmick is a meaningless tribute that no one cares about except a 400-pound glutton

The NFL, in a shameless attempt to raise revenues, has embarked on its fourth season of keeping football from the public. Bars, restaurants and the frivolously wealthy are the only ones privy to this game. If you happen to be amongst the few that see it, a strange thought washes over you midway through the first quarter: it's Thursday, you're drunk, and you're watching NFL football. Fans in the stadiums are even taken aback. A strongly reserved attitude falls over the gazing masses as if to demonstrate to NFL executives that we can indeed handle this privilege and deserve more in the future. The normal brainless frenzy of Sundays is not to be found. This is, after all, a weekday, and people have to get back to work win or lose.

Thursday, 7:15
Line: Cleveland -3
Percent of Vegas action on Denver: 62%

The Broncos may be the worst team to ever be leading its division going into week 10. Jay Cutler, and all his boy-wonder hype, is the most over-rated quarterback in the NFL. He gets flustered, even grumpy, when he has to make a play. He can only play with the lead! He claims to have a stronger arm than John Elway … okay, who cares? You don't have a stronger arm than Jeff George (who met with Herm Edwards just last week to discuss returning to football as the Chiefs starter) and he's 41! Arm strength means nothing. Just ask JaMarcus Russell.

The Browns are coming off a tough loss to a stodgy Baltimore D. Their offensive floodgates should open up this week as the NFL's worst defense takes the field. Cleveland has already proved they could show up on a big stage with its dismantling of the defending Super Bowl champs on MNF. This is last call for Cleveland; a loss here and their season's over. A short week favors the home squad, so lay the chalk and watch Quinn chug some Muscle Milk™ while getting his first win. Believe it, pencil-dicks.







3:05
Line: Carolina -9
Percent of Vegas action on Carolina: 99%

This is the easiest game on the board. Oakland has the most inept team in the league, and they don't care about winning anymore, which is music to a gambler's ears. The Raiders will lose the rest of their games and fail to cover the majority of them, too. They're not even going to win one of those lets-win-this-game-to-knock-so-and-so-out-of-the-playoffs games. This is an in-house Helter Skelter. I've never seen a team this bad. There is no worse team in the NFL nor any team heading south quicker. This line should be closer to 16 or 17.

Tom Cable, if he hasn't been bludgeoned to death by rabid fans, will prove once again that he's the most undissevering and incompetent head coach in the NFL. I'm not sure he's ever seen a football game before last month. I'm fairly sure he's actually that roaring drunk from Revenge of the Nerds. Tom Cable's inability to keep from embarrassing himself is going to make me a happy man. Consider Tom Cable your personal coke mule for the remainder of the season. This weekend he'll be smuggling a handsome payday up his arse.









12:00
Line: Tennessee -3
Percent of Vegas action on Tennessee: 96%

Tennessee does not play in a sexy market and thus they're hated by the t-shirt peddling NFL. This line reflects that. They received a nice scare last week and should be focused going into Chi-town.

Rex Grossman will be starting in place of the injured Kyle Orton. Let me repeat that: Rex Grossman is at the helm! He's a born loser who's hated by an entire city for losing a Super Bowl. After his first mistake in this game, the fans well be booing like the beer-drunk, pizza-devouring idiots they are. He'll have no confidence. I like going against bitch quarterbacks, and this Rex fellow is a true bitch. Steven Segal even hates him.

The Bears had to stage a second half comeback against the Lions last week. Why would I back a team that struggles with the winless Lions? There is simply not a good case to be made for a Chicago play here. The Titans are now on a mission to seal up that home field advantage throughout the playoffs and Chicago is not the team, or defense, it was several years ago.

I like the pudgy bitch, Rex, to have the kind of performances he's accustomed to: three or four picks, arrant throws, happy feet, and an overall lackluster game/life.

3:15
Line: San Diego -15
Percent of Vegas action on Kansas City: 76%

San Diego is considered one of what I call "America's teams." To be classifies as an "America's team" you must possess one or more of the following characteristics: (a) have a marquee player; (b) play in a huge football market; or (c) have a storied past. San Diego & Dallas are the preeminent "America's teams" in the NFL right now. People love these teams for some reason, and thus they get very generous lines from the oddsmakers. KC has proven in back-to-back weeks that they can keep games manageable. Sure, SD needs this game bad and will come out with a victory, but this is too high. Teams giving double-digit chalk are not covering this year.

The Chargers are not good, but you hear all these sportscasters saying things like "they'll be okay; they'll get their wins." Huh?! No, they won't be "okay." The AFC west team that makes the playoffs will likely have an 8-8 record. Perhaps you saw the entire division on the cover latest issue of Piss Guzzlers quarterly. What a spittoon

---

Bonus College Play: Western Michigan +7.5

*** solely for entertainment purposes***

Week 9: The vestal virgins are gone

November is finally here, which means the ghosts of October's climatic gambling season are behind us. November is always a calmer month--teams vying for playoff births don't play down, and those without hope lay in the gutter and die like swine. If you can manage to survive the gauntlet of October, the gambling gods smile upon you for being amongst the chosen. The posers are gone; it's big-boy time.

In certain climates, it's often easier to pick losers then it is winners. Scott Linehan's Rams use to be a cash-cow for the gambling masses. Frustratingly, Jim Hasslet has slaughtered the golden calf as the Rams have come away with two covers (hell, wins!) and a push in his first three games. I hate to admit it, but the Rams are back to ruining parlays and it's high time to start looking for another sinking ship. It's not just about finding out-and-out losers to go against, rather spotting the losers that haven't been totally written off by Vegas. I call it The Hunt for Red October.

Last week: 3-0-2
Blog record: 3-0-2









12:00 CT
Line: Tampa Bay -8.5
Percent of Vegas action on the Tampa Bay: 84%

Virgin QB Tyler Thigpen put up some decent points last week (one for every drink LJ spit in a woman's face, I think), but lets' face it, the Jets' secondary is pitiful. Monte Kiffin's Bucs will come to KC with schemes this young turk had never before seen and he'll be blitzed like mad. Tampa is 6th against the run and LJ's suspended indefinitely, so KC will have to rely on his Thigpen's arm, which means Thiggy should have a dirty diaper by halftime.

I live in this city, and following the principals of "local knowledge," popularized by financial titian Peter Lynch, I should "invest in what [I] know." I know this: the Chiefs are an abomination. All local radio sportscasters and morning talk show hosts are on Lexapro and suicide watch. Sure, Herm Edwards stepped up last week because that's what you do when you play your former team. But the Bucs let a gimme slip through their hands last week in Big D and are looking to come correct against an inferior opponent.

Tampa Bay needed that loss last week to refocus. They're heading into a bye as an 8.5 favorite, and there's a time-tested gamblers trend that plays in our favor here. It says you should back any favorite of 6.5 or more leading into its bye. The rational is that if a team is a touchdown favorite, it's a good squad, and good squads tend to play well going into their bye. Don’t believe me? Well, since 2002, this trend is 30-5 ATS. Jesus can't even fade this stat.

Peter Lynch and I will call this one a Spit In Your Face Special. Give the points.







3:15 CT
Line: Philadelphia -6.5
Percent of Vegas action on Philadelphia: 96%


This is the battle of the clinically obese coaches. The fattest, most unrepentant gluttons in the league square off in what should be a snore-fest.

The Eagles are 4th in passing offense and the Seahawks are 30th defending the pass. Seattle got their token win last week thanks to the ne'er-do-well J.T. O'Sullivan. Now it's back to the disappointing their espresso-quaffing, Panini-eating fan base. Westbrook is healthy again and I really don't see Seattle having an answer for a back this talented catching the dump-offs. The Seahawks have no playmakers; they only gained an embarrassing 38 yards rushing in their win last week; Lofa Tatupu has a strained groin; the Eagles are fourth in sacks, and Mike Holmgren's washed up.



This game, if nothing else, would make a solid teaser play. The city of Philadelphia is riding the crest of that World Series wave, and the filthy Seahawks will simply be the next victim of this Pennsylvania winning streak.

This one's for disgraced Philly mayor John Street (seen here), who famously went to an Apple Store at 3 AM to wait in line for the iPhone. A 22-year-old girl with a Mohawk asked him, "How can you sit here with 200 murders in the city already?" He left the line immediately and subsequently lost his reelection bid. "Hey, hey girl can I hit you back?"








12:00 CT
Line: Chicago -13
Percent of Vegas action on Detroit: 56%

This line is too high. Detroit was a punt return away from wining against the Redskins, and Orlovski, while still green and somewhat mistake prone, managed to turn some third downs and demonstrated an ability to orchestrate a two-minute offense at the end of the half last week. He's getting on the same page as Calvin Johnson and trusting him to come down with jump balls.

People in suicide leagues across the nation are backing the Bears hard in this game, and while I see them coming out with a victory too, I can't endorse 13 points. 0-7 teams or worse are 14-6 ATS since 2000. +13 is a Matt Millen line, not a Martin Mayhew line. Take the Lions and any points.

12:00 CT
Line: Washington -1.5
Percent of Vegas action on Washington: 60%

I don't like the kind of ball the 'Skins are playing right now. You take Santana Moss out of last Sunday's game and Detroit gets its first W. Moss has that kind of game twice a year. You'll be watching NFL Primetime a month from now and that whale, Berman, will be blathering about what a spectacular game he had. Is he a good player? Yeah, sure, but he's spotty. The type of guy that has a big game every so often just to remind people that he's not dead. This is the case with most ex-Miami stars. Their big-play ability sustained them in college, but once they hit the NFL and their speed was equalized, they became lost in a sea of other talented thugs, pimps, and gang affiliates.

That said, I think this team is a couple lucky breaks away from being a sub .500 team. Campbell isn't testing the deep waters enough; they're playing too conservatively; their defense is susceptible to a hurry-up offense--nothing comes easy for them. My Ravens/Redskins teaser had me watching the entire 'Skins/Lions gamcast on NFL.com, and to be honest, Detroit surprised me. Orlovski started off slow, but when it mattered, he made some nice third down plays. If not for the Moss punt return, the Lions win that game. Can Washington open the throttle just once?

All that said, I have to side with them Monday night. The Pittsburg O-line is just god-awful. The Steelers just couldn't answer the Giants' pass rush and that ugly bastard, Roethlisberger, was forgoing play making opportunities in lieu of dreaming about another Fat Head's ad. The "people in TV Land" watched the lumbering oaf get shoved to the ground over and over. He's lost something ever since that motorcycle accident. Can you imagine that leviathan on a bike? I bet one of the cavemen in that GEICO commercial for motorcycle insurance was Roethlisberger. It's like the guy escaped from Michael Jackson's Neverland ranch and left Bobo to fend for himself. Every once in a while he'll have a nice game to ensure that the powers-that-be don't send him back his ape brethren.

The home teams on MNF are 7-2 this year (for what it's worth, Oakland accounted for one of those losses). Washington hasn’t played host on MNF for several years, and I think they're out to prove that they haven't simply Mr. Magooed their way to a 6-2 record. This team is finding ways to win, and sometimes that good enough (see last year's Super Bowl winner for proof).


Joining Icarus toward the Earth lit Sun,

Mick

Bonus College Pick: Iowa State +31

***solely for entertainment purposes***

The week that will be

Welcome, welcome, friends. The following is the proverbial Hail Mary attempt to salvage what's left of the NFL season (and my credit for that matter). Weeks 1-7 have been the most unpredictable in recent memory. I was an abismal 4-10 last week with two of my closest gambling-degenerate friends as witnesses. The only certainty is that everything I write here will have no merit the following week. Like 007 correspondences, these predictions will self-destruct upon nightfall Sunday. With that said, the remainder of the season shall be guided by a single credo: "50 said, 'Go ahead, switch the style up / And if they hate, then let 'em hate, and watch the money pile up.' "







Sunday, 12:00 CT
Line: Ravens -7
Percent of Vegas money on Baltimore: 91%

A gambling geek recently figured out that the Ravens home field advantage is the strongest of any team in the NFL. This was determined by measuring every team's margin of victory at home against their margin of defeat on the road. The Raves somehow came out on top of this strange, but interesting, statistical list. Baltimore: No longer known for crab-cake-eating, chubby frat boys with failed hopes of attending Johns Hopkins.

That said, I know the Raiders; I love the Raiders; I used to live and die by the Raiders; however, this team is rubbish. They are not going to win on the road--and not in Baltimore of all places! We all caught the CBS bonus coverage of the Jets/Raiders last week ... what an abomination. I'm still awaiting my written apology from the NFL's top brass. No one wanted to win that game. Janikowski put us all out of our misery with his 57-yard bomb, but as Neil Young said: "I've seen the needle and the damage done."

Put simply, the Raiders cannot move the chains and Justin Fargas spends too much time wishing he were Reggie Bush. There's no personality, no hutspa, no desire to win or even look respectable. Their newly minted coach won't allow Russell to pull the trigger on a deep ball, an ability I'm beginning to doubt wholeheartedly. And on an unrelated note (well, perhaps it's related) can he lose some weight? If you could just see the back side of Janikowski and Russell, you couldn't tell them apart. While witnessing the only other Raider victory in Arrowhead this year, I overheard one boisterous drunk heckling "tankass" from the nose-bleed section. Zing.

This team doesn't want to win. Period. They wanna cash their over-sized checks, play Madden '09, and be seen at sordid Oakland clubs that have special rooms for nipple-pinching fetishes and the like. Let's face it, Tom Cable is not physiologically equipped to right a player deep in the maw of a sadistic, nipple-torturing bender.

The Ravens are coming off a solid win and have some mo. The Raiders are flying east to play the early game, and as worn-out as that stat may be, there's still something to it. Before you think this may be a stay-away game, ask you this: Can you even picture the Raiders scoring on that D? New Orleans nearly shut 'em out, and you know the Saints' defense is the Casey Anthony of the NFL: they lay down for anyone.

Give the points and enjoy watching the gamecast on NFL.com as the Raiders turn countless first and tens into first and twenty.







Line: Bills -1.5
Sunday, 12:00 CT
Percent of Vegas money on Buffalo: 92%

There are times when everything seems too easy, too predictable. Times when the odds are so good that only an idiot would go against them. 5-1 verses 2-4 is exactly that situation. A solid team coming off a nice win in a blacked-out stadium going against a spotty organization with a gimmick offense. There is no statistic one could point to demonstrating that Miami has an edge. Buffalo should win this game by 14 points by any casual estimation. But when things look too good to be true, we know they are.

Vegas has a couple games like this every month or so: a statistical favorite practically even money with a team with no playoff hopes. You look at the line perplexed. "Jeez, this is an easy third leg to my ML parlay that will will have a huge multiplier!" You hit 'Confirm,' forget about this leg, and spend the rest the pre-kickoff hours convincing yourself that the other two legs were good, smart plays. Four hours later the games you were sweating are an auto-pilot and your "lock" is dogfight at best, an enormous upset at worst. We've all been there.

What happened? Someone knew something you didn't. This Buffalo/Miami games stinks of that odor. Call it what you will, a classic look-ahead game, a must-win situation, whatever, but I'd be on the other side of that mortar. Last week, it was the Raiders +3 (which I called), this weekend, it's this game. Trap-of-the-week, El Trapo, The Big Trap. Caveat emptor.







Sunday, 12:00 CT
Line: Redskins -8
Percent of Vegas money on the Redskins: 85%


This prediction needs little thought. The Redskins had their scare last weekend with St. Louis, so don't expect it to happen on back-to-back weeks. Portis is leading the NFL rushing, and even though the Redskins haven't won a game by more that seven points all season, I like CP to embarrass (if that's possible) the Lions' organization. There are just too many things going wrong for the Lions to be confident in any other pick. I'll admit, they've come away with a couple irksome covers the past several weeks, but the Redskins know they can use this game to propel themselves in their division. Give the points, rip of the pop-top of a Bud Light and enjoy that "drinkability."







Sunday, 12:00 CT
Line: -4
Percent of Vegas money on the Panthers: 83%


To some, this probably has the feeling of an anything-could-happen-here game--it certainly does to Vegas. Whenever you see a line at 4 , 4.5 or 5,this is what I refer to as the "Vegas Zone." This is when oddsmakers are not too confident as to what may happen. I don't like to make a habit of following the betting public (as I've done in 3 out of 4 picks here), but when Vegas is unsure about something, the collective masses will make them pay for it.

I feel no need to go in to great detail about my choice here. Yeah I like Carolina at home; yeah I like betting against a West Coast team coming east to play in an early game; yeah I like Julius Peppers to get to Kurt Warner and cause a repeat of his Meadowlands performance. Given all that, this is just one of those gut-feeling games.

----

This weekend is ripe for teasers. The Ravens, the Panthers, the Eagles, the Redskins, the 49ers, the Jaguars, and the Titians should all win SU. Do it for Neil Diamond and the Kentucky Woman.

Res ipsa loquitur,

Mick


Bonus College Pick: UNLV +23.5

***Solely for entertainment purposes***