Sunday, 12:00 CT
Line: Ravens -7
Percent of Vegas money on Baltimore: 91%
A gambling geek recently figured out that the Ravens home field advantage is the strongest of any team in the NFL. This was determined by measuring every team's margin of victory at home against their margin of defeat on the road. The Raves somehow came out on top of this strange, but interesting, statistical list. Baltimore: No longer known for crab-cake-eating, chubby frat boys with failed hopes of attending Johns Hopkins.
That said, I know the Raiders; I love the Raiders; I used to live and die by the Raiders; however, this team is rubbish. They are not going to win on the road--and not in Baltimore of all places! We all caught the CBS bonus coverage of the Jets/Raiders last week ... what an abomination. I'm still awaiting my written apology from the NFL's top brass. No one wanted to win that game. Janikowski put us all out of our misery with his 57-yard bomb, but as Neil Young said: "I've seen the needle and the damage done."
Put simply, the Raiders cannot move the chains and Justin Fargas spends too much time wishing he were Reggie Bush. There's no personality, no hutspa, no desire to win or even look respectable. Their newly minted coach won't allow Russell to pull the trigger on a deep ball, an ability I'm beginning to doubt wholeheartedly. And on an unrelated note (well, perhaps it's related) can he lose some weight? If you could just see the back side of Janikowski and Russell, you couldn't tell them apart. While witnessing the only other Raider victory in Arrowhead this year, I overheard one boisterous drunk heckling "tankass" from the nose-bleed section. Zing.
This team doesn't want to win. Period. They wanna cash their over-sized checks, play Madden '09, and be seen at sordid Oakland clubs that have special rooms for nipple-pinching fetishes and the like. Let's face it, Tom Cable is not physiologically equipped to right a player deep in the maw of a sadistic, nipple-torturing bender.
The Ravens are coming off a solid win and have some mo. The Raiders are flying east to play the early game, and as worn-out as that stat may be, there's still something to it. Before you think this may be a stay-away game, ask you this: Can you even picture the Raiders scoring on that D? New Orleans nearly shut 'em out, and you know the Saints' defense is the Casey Anthony of the NFL: they lay down for anyone.
Give the points and enjoy watching the gamecast on NFL.com as the Raiders turn countless first and tens into first and twenty.
Line: Bills -1.5
Sunday, 12:00 CT
Percent of Vegas money on Buffalo: 92%
There are times when everything seems too easy, too predictable. Times when the odds are so good that only an idiot would go against them. 5-1 verses 2-4 is exactly that situation. A solid team coming off a nice win in a blacked-out stadium going against a spotty organization with a gimmick offense. There is no statistic one could point to demonstrating that Miami has an edge. Buffalo should win this game by 14 points by any casual estimation. But when things look too good to be true, we know they are.
Vegas has a couple games like this every month or so: a statistical favorite practically even money with a team with no playoff hopes. You look at the line perplexed. "Jeez, this is an easy third leg to my ML parlay that will will have a huge multiplier!" You hit 'Confirm,' forget about this leg, and spend the rest the pre-kickoff hours convincing yourself that the other two legs were good, smart plays. Four hours later the games you were sweating are an auto-pilot and your "lock" is dogfight at best, an enormous upset at worst. We've all been there.
What happened? Someone knew something you didn't. This Buffalo/Miami games stinks of that odor. Call it what you will, a classic look-ahead game, a must-win situation, whatever, but I'd be on the other side of that mortar. Last week, it was the Raiders +3 (which I called), this weekend, it's this game. Trap-of-the-week, El Trapo, The Big Trap. Caveat emptor.
Sunday, 12:00 CT
Line: Redskins -8
Percent of Vegas money on the Redskins: 85%
This prediction needs little thought. The Redskins had their scare last weekend with St. Louis, so don't expect it to happen on back-to-back weeks. Portis is leading the NFL rushing, and even though the Redskins haven't won a game by more that seven points all season, I like CP to embarrass (if that's possible) the Lions' organization. There are just too many things going wrong for the Lions to be confident in any other pick. I'll admit, they've come away with a couple irksome covers the past several weeks, but the Redskins know they can use this game to propel themselves in their division. Give the points, rip of the pop-top of a Bud Light and enjoy that "drinkability."
Sunday, 12:00 CT
Line: -4
Percent of Vegas money on the Panthers: 83%
To some, this probably has the feeling of an anything-could-happen-here game--it certainly does to Vegas. Whenever you see a line at 4 , 4.5 or 5,this is what I refer to as the "Vegas Zone." This is when oddsmakers are not too confident as to what may happen. I don't like to make a habit of following the betting public (as I've done in 3 out of 4 picks here), but when Vegas is unsure about something, the collective masses will make them pay for it.
I feel no need to go in to great detail about my choice here. Yeah I like Carolina at home; yeah I like betting against a West Coast team coming east to play in an early game; yeah I like Julius Peppers to get to Kurt Warner and cause a repeat of his Meadowlands performance. Given all that, this is just one of those gut-feeling games.
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This weekend is ripe for teasers. The Ravens, the Panthers, the Eagles, the Redskins, the 49ers, the Jaguars, and the Titians should all win SU. Do it for Neil Diamond and the Kentucky Woman.
Res ipsa loquitur,
Mick
Bonus College Pick: UNLV +23.5
Res ipsa loquitur,
Mick
Bonus College Pick: UNLV +23.5
***Solely for entertainment purposes***
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