In certain climates, it's often easier to pick losers then it is winners. Scott Linehan's Rams use to be a cash-cow for the gambling masses. Frustratingly, Jim Hasslet has slaughtered the golden calf as the Rams have come away with two covers (hell, wins!) and a push in his first three games. I hate to admit it, but the Rams are back to ruining parlays and it's high time to start looking for another sinking ship. It's not just about finding out-and-out losers to go against, rather spotting the losers that haven't been totally written off by Vegas. I call it The Hunt for Red October.
Last week: 3-0-2
Blog record: 3-0-2
12:00 CT
Line: Tampa Bay -8.5
Percent of Vegas action on the Tampa Bay: 84%
Virgin QB Tyler Thigpen put up some decent points last week (one for every drink LJ spit in a woman's face, I think), but lets' face it, the Jets' secondary is pitiful. Monte Kiffin's Bucs will come to KC with schemes this young turk had never before seen and he'll be blitzed like mad. Tampa is 6th against the run and LJ's suspended indefinitely, so KC will have to rely on his Thigpen's arm, which means Thiggy should have a dirty diaper by halftime.
I live in this city, and following the principals of "local knowledge," popularized by financial titian Peter Lynch, I should "invest in what [I] know." I know this: the Chiefs are an abomination. All local radio sportscasters and morning talk show hosts are on Lexapro and suicide watch. Sure, Herm Edwards stepped up last week because that's what you do when you play your former team. But the Bucs let a gimme slip through their hands last week in Big D and are looking to come correct against an inferior opponent.
Tampa Bay needed that loss last week to refocus. They're heading into a bye as an 8.5 favorite, and there's a time-tested gamblers trend that plays in our favor here. It says you should back any favorite of 6.5 or more leading into its bye. The rational is that if a team is a touchdown favorite, it's a good squad, and good squads tend to play well going into their bye. Don’t believe me? Well, since 2002, this trend is 30-5 ATS. Jesus can't even fade this stat.
Peter Lynch and I will call this one a Spit In Your Face Special. Give the points.
3:15 CT
Line: Philadelphia -6.5
Percent of Vegas action on Philadelphia: 96%
This is the battle of the clinically obese coaches. The fattest, most unrepentant gluttons in the league square off in what should be a snore-fest.
The Eagles are 4th in passing offense and the Seahawks are 30th defending the pass. Seattle got their token win last week thanks to the ne'er-do-well J.T. O'Sullivan. Now it's back to the disappointing their espresso-quaffing, Panini-eating fan base. Westbrook is healthy again and I really don't see Seattle having an answer for a back this talented catching the dump-offs. The Seahawks have no playmakers; they only gained an embarrassing 38 yards rushing in their win last week; Lofa Tatupu has a strained groin; the Eagles are fourth in sacks, and Mike Holmgren's washed up.
This game, if nothing else, would make a solid teaser play. The city of Philadelphia is riding the crest of that World Series wave, and the filthy Seahawks will simply be the next victim of this Pennsylvania winning streak.
This one's for disgraced Philly mayor John Street (seen here), who famously went to an Apple Store at 3 AM to wait in line for the iPhone. A 22-year-old girl with a Mohawk asked him, "How can you sit here with 200 murders in the city already?" He left the line immediately and subsequently lost his reelection bid. "Hey, hey girl can I hit you back?"
12:00 CT
Line: Chicago -13
Percent of Vegas action on Detroit: 56%
This line is too high. Detroit was a punt return away from wining against the Redskins, and Orlovski, while still green and somewhat mistake prone, managed to turn some third downs and demonstrated an ability to orchestrate a two-minute offense at the end of the half last week. He's getting on the same page as Calvin Johnson and trusting him to come down with jump balls.
People in suicide leagues across the nation are backing the Bears hard in this game, and while I see them coming out with a victory too, I can't endorse 13 points. 0-7 teams or worse are 14-6 ATS since 2000. +13 is a Matt Millen line, not a Martin Mayhew line. Take the Lions and any points.
12:00 CT
Line: Washington -1.5
Percent of Vegas action on Washington: 60%
I don't like the kind of ball the 'Skins are playing right now. You take Santana Moss out of last Sunday's game and Detroit gets its first W. Moss has that kind of game twice a year. You'll be watching NFL Primetime a month from now and that whale, Berman, will be blathering about what a spectacular game he had. Is he a good player? Yeah, sure, but he's spotty. The type of guy that has a big game every so often just to remind people that he's not dead. This is the case with most ex-Miami stars. Their big-play ability sustained them in college, but once they hit the NFL and their speed was equalized, they became lost in a sea of other talented thugs, pimps, and gang affiliates.
That said, I think this team is a couple lucky breaks away from being a sub .500 team. Campbell isn't testing the deep waters enough; they're playing too conservatively; their defense is susceptible to a hurry-up offense--nothing comes easy for them. My Ravens/Redskins teaser had me watching the entire 'Skins/Lions gamcast on NFL.com, and to be honest, Detroit surprised me. Orlovski started off slow, but when it mattered, he made some nice third down plays. If not for the Moss punt return, the Lions win that game. Can Washington open the throttle just once?
All that said, I have to side with them Monday night. The Pittsburg O-line is just god-awful. The Steelers just couldn't answer the Giants' pass rush and that ugly bastard, Roethlisberger, was forgoing play making opportunities in lieu of dreaming about another Fat Head's ad. The "people in TV Land" watched the lumbering oaf get shoved to the ground over and over. He's lost something ever since that motorcycle accident. Can you imagine that leviathan on a bike? I bet one of the cavemen in that GEICO commercial for motorcycle insurance was Roethlisberger. It's like the guy escaped from Michael Jackson's Neverland ranch and left Bobo to fend for himself. Every once in a while he'll have a nice game to ensure that the powers-that-be don't send him back his ape brethren.
The home teams on MNF are 7-2 this year (for what it's worth, Oakland accounted for one of those losses). Washington hasn’t played host on MNF for several years, and I think they're out to prove that they haven't simply Mr. Magooed their way to a 6-2 record. This team is finding ways to win, and sometimes that good enough (see last year's Super Bowl winner for proof).
Joining Icarus toward the Earth lit Sun,
Mick
Bonus College Pick: Iowa State +31
Line: Washington -1.5
Percent of Vegas action on Washington: 60%
I don't like the kind of ball the 'Skins are playing right now. You take Santana Moss out of last Sunday's game and Detroit gets its first W. Moss has that kind of game twice a year. You'll be watching NFL Primetime a month from now and that whale, Berman, will be blathering about what a spectacular game he had. Is he a good player? Yeah, sure, but he's spotty. The type of guy that has a big game every so often just to remind people that he's not dead. This is the case with most ex-Miami stars. Their big-play ability sustained them in college, but once they hit the NFL and their speed was equalized, they became lost in a sea of other talented thugs, pimps, and gang affiliates.
That said, I think this team is a couple lucky breaks away from being a sub .500 team. Campbell isn't testing the deep waters enough; they're playing too conservatively; their defense is susceptible to a hurry-up offense--nothing comes easy for them. My Ravens/Redskins teaser had me watching the entire 'Skins/Lions gamcast on NFL.com, and to be honest, Detroit surprised me. Orlovski started off slow, but when it mattered, he made some nice third down plays. If not for the Moss punt return, the Lions win that game. Can Washington open the throttle just once?
All that said, I have to side with them Monday night. The Pittsburg O-line is just god-awful. The Steelers just couldn't answer the Giants' pass rush and that ugly bastard, Roethlisberger, was forgoing play making opportunities in lieu of dreaming about another Fat Head's ad. The "people in TV Land" watched the lumbering oaf get shoved to the ground over and over. He's lost something ever since that motorcycle accident. Can you imagine that leviathan on a bike? I bet one of the cavemen in that GEICO commercial for motorcycle insurance was Roethlisberger. It's like the guy escaped from Michael Jackson's Neverland ranch and left Bobo to fend for himself. Every once in a while he'll have a nice game to ensure that the powers-that-be don't send him back his ape brethren.
The home teams on MNF are 7-2 this year (for what it's worth, Oakland accounted for one of those losses). Washington hasn’t played host on MNF for several years, and I think they're out to prove that they haven't simply Mr. Magooed their way to a 6-2 record. This team is finding ways to win, and sometimes that good enough (see last year's Super Bowl winner for proof).
Joining Icarus toward the Earth lit Sun,
Mick
Bonus College Pick: Iowa State +31
***solely for entertainment purposes***
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